Credit Risk’s Peak?

Has credit risk peaked?

TransUnion reported today that its quarterly Credit Risk Index (CRI) increased to 128.32 in the second quarter as the economy continued to slump, compared with 127.26 three months earlier. The CRI measures the average probability of 90-day delinquency, or worse, among consumers. According to TransUnion, “for comparison purposes, the Credit Risk Index in recent years has generally ranged between 110 and 120, experiencing a one- or two-point shift between quarters.”

That would imply that the 2Q number may have marked a peak in credit risk. Certainly, economic data in the third quarter has improved.