Provisions, Not Profits, Tell an Ugly Story at Citi

The fact that Citigroup posted a $1.6 billion profit is certainly better than a $1.6 billion loss.

But all this “best quarter since 2007” talk has me wondering whether anyone looked at the “provision for credit losses” tab of the company’s supplemental quarterly earnings data, which you can find here.

Citi’s provisions for credit losses last quarter topped $9.9 billion. While that number was lower than the $12.17 billion provision in the fourth quarter of 2008, it is still 78% higher than the bank’s provision in the first quarter of 2008. Year-over-year, Citi’s fourth quarter ’08 provision increased 66%. Since the credit crisis started in early 2007, Citi has allocated $60.4 billion to cover credit losses.

These are massive numbers. These are also ugly numbers. Remember, credit losses are allocations for future credit losses. Just to give you a feel, in global consumer banking, for example, Citi socked away $3.8 billion for future credit losses, a 66% quarter-over-quarter increase. Nearly every corner of the bank required credit loss provision increases in the high double digits.

Barclays Plc President Robert Diamond told Bloomberg:

The industry’s first-quarter profits aren’t a “one-off” phenomenon, Diamond said in an April 15 interview. “It has been quite a while since we’ve seen analysts talk about revenue as opposed to writedowns and balance-sheet risks,” he said.

I don’t know about that. I look at Citi’s provisions and see a bank expecting more and more credit losses, and one that didn’t properly provision in quarters past. Well, I guess that’s what you get when you underwrite loans with one eye shut.