Goldman Wins the Crown

Much of the talk in the wake of the release of the Federal Reserve’s stress test results yesterday has centered on the banks that need to raise capital. Bank of America, Wells Fargo & Co., GMAC LLC, et al face the task of shoring up their Tier 1 capital ratios — or else.

But this loses sight of the whole reason why the Fed tested the banks to begin with, and that is to find out which banks are fiscally prepared for a worsening economic hurricane and which are not. So, after all the hubbub and news leaking and rumors, which of the 19 banks receives the crown as the Safest Bank in the United States?

Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

I calculated which bank has the greatest cushion of Tier 1 capital against the total estimated losses according to the Fed’s stress test, and Goldman came out on top by needing just 31.84% of its Tier 1 capital to cover its stress-test-level losses. Goldman was followed closely by MetLife bank at 31.89%. Both banks were not required by the Treasury Department to raise additional capital.

On the other end of the spectrum was American Express, which just wiggled its way out of being required to raise additional capital. Amex needs 110.89% of Tier 1 (in other words, more than it currently has on hand) to cover its losses. It was because of its other “resources” to cover losses that Amex did not need to raise new capital.

Here’s the list of the ranking of the coverage ratio of the nine banks:

BANK: PERCENTAGE OF TIER 1 NEEDED TO COVER ESTIMATED LOSSES
1. Goldman Sachs: 31.84%
2. MetLife: 31.89%
3. Bank of New York Mellon: 35.06%
4. State Street: 58.16%
5. US Bancorp: 64.34%
6. BB&T: 64.93%
7. JP Morgan Chase: 71.51%
8. Capital One: 79.76%
9. American Express: 110.89%

No wonder Stephen Friedman, chairman of the board of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, was buying up GS shares.