Prices of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) with similar maturity dates can be used to measure probabilities of a net decline in the consumer price index over the five-year period starting in early 2011 or the five-year period starting in early 2012. One measure of the probability of deflation for the 2012-17 period was 13 percent on October 31, unchanged from a week earlier. This probability has been flat over the past six weeks.
The deflation probability for the 2011-16 period was 10 percent on October 31, up slightly from 9 percent on October 24.