Brown Calls the Bottom — and Gets Blasted

Tom Brown has been a banking stock analyst since the 1980s. That’s all he does.

Today on SeekingAlpha.com he “called the bottom,” writing, “I believe the stocks should be bought now; investors who wait for signs of major fundamental improvement will end up missing the boat.” And, boy, did he get blasted for it. As one commentator put it, “This clown has gone from calling the bottom several times to telling people to buy even though prices will probably go lower.”

Brown acknowledges that credit performance will continue to decline. “Yes, there will be more loan losses, asset sales at depressed prices, and further negative asset marks. Credit is still deteriorating,” he writes. But “investors who wait for an all-clear signal will have missed most of the coming move higher.”

You’ve got to hand it to Brown for getting out in front on this. One comment on his blog today called him a “shill.” I wouldn’t go that far, but his logic is hard to digest. Yes, the price-to-book-value ratios of banks are amazingly appealing — on paper. The reality is the markets still largely don’t know the reality, as evidenced by Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s down draft in stock price recently. In other words, the wild ride continues.