Another Round of Credit Crisis

Here we go again. The TED spread may have dropped below 100, and heading lower, but this feels like another round of credit crisis coming on, what with Citigroup essentially planning to be dismantled; dour new economic data, particularly on the retail front; the Dow pointing markedly lower this morning; credit still tight overall; and the beginnings of collapse within commercial loan portfolios.

We may likely look back on this period and point to the recent bankruptcy of Lyondell Chemical Co. as a watershed event. Lyondell’s bankruptcy offers banks its their first major losses on leverage-buyout loans. Royal Bank of Scotland faces losses of $3.47 billion on Lyondell. Embattled Citigroup, meanwhile, is facing a $1.4 billion hit. UBS, Merrill Lynch and Apollo Management all face credit exposure to Lyondell.

This current crisis of confidence is fueled by a simple question: How many more leverage-buyout loans will go bust? Frighteningly (there’s that “fear” again), perhaps many more.