The Banking Industry Depression Is Over

Look, you can continue drinking the glass-half-empty Kool-Aid on the Calculated Risk blog, you can keep clinging to Meredith Whitney’s negativity, but as far as I am concerned, JP Morgan Chase & Co.‘s earnings report today marks the end of the worst of the banking industry’s dislocation.

Sure, the bank’s credit losses continued last quarter. Specifically, the Wamu loan portfolio continues to cause credit problems at JPM (at some point — and I haven’t done the math on this — that acquisition will become a money-loser for the bank). JPM sees its credit card business, for example, eventually realizing a 10.5% loss rate, which is just jarring.

And if you stop at credit losses, you might think JPM — and banking, in general — is still stuck in mire, but credit losses is only have the story. The mark of the end is in net-interest margins, originations, relative stabilization of loss reserves, and elsewhere. Again, JPM’s credit card unit offers a fine example. JPM’s cards produced net-interest margins 9.10% last quarter, up a hefty 47 basis points from the second quarter. That’s a notable jump in margin. You see similar positives sprinkled throughout JPM’s earnings, such as appreciation in the bank’s leveraged loans portfolio. In all, JPM reported net income of $3.6 billion on revenue of $28.8 billion.

What these factors imply overall is that the banking business today and going forward is healthy, which is why JPM stock is hitting 52-week highs today. JPM officials on the company’s earnings call today even implied that the bank might in early 2010 triple its dividend, as long as the recession or unemployment doesn’t worsen.

And that really is the key: the direction of the economy. It is difficult at this point, considering the government’s monetary policy and consumer sentiments, to foresee the economy greatly worsening. Obviously, JPM agrees with this statement. The bank continues to actively grow and invest in its business. As far as the banking industry’s depression goes, it’s over.

JPM’s earnings presentation here.