SPREAD ‘EM: Forget Today’s TED, Credit Prices Still Shine

Don’t let today’s TED-spread widening fool you. Credit prices are still as good as they have been in five years.

Yesterday, it closed at 16.86, but today it has already briefly bumped over 20 basis points, although it is now settling it in the low-19 range. The couple of bps of TED widening today is more a result of the three-month Treasury yield falling this morning because of the manageable consumer price index data released this morning. (U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4% in August, in line with Wall Street’s expectations.)

The TED spread measures the difference between three-month Treasurys and the three-month Libor rate.

As for the Libor-OIS spread, which measures the difference between the three-month Libor rate and the anticipated average of the federal funds rate, it continues its downward march. The spread is now just 12 basis points.

As recently as July it was in the high 30s. At this time last year, it was at 132.5, on its way to its eventual peak on Oct. 10 at 364.4. Repeat after me: “what a difference a year makes.”