The brunt of the credit crisis may be over, but bankers still have concerns about their businesses and future. Here are four top worries today:
1. FAS 166 & 167
These two accounting rules go into effect next quarter and effectively they will force many securitized assets currently in special-purpose entities to find their way back onto bank balance sheets. Mainly, this accounting change has implications for capital reserves, and there’s not a bank in America today that wants to mess with its reserve levels.
2. Legislation & Regulation
Sen. Chris Dodd’s proposal today is just the latest in a long line of worry-inducing pending legislation. In bankers’ favor: Capitol Hill works about as fast as snails after happy hour.
3. Reserve Requirements
Ask Lloyd Blankfein, Goldman Sachs’s CEO, about how much capital the investment bank will need for reserves after international regulators are done revising their rules and here’s what he’ll say: “There is a determination to move things quickly, but the actors involved in that are not sure of the timing. What should we do about the management of our capital? We are waiting for capital standards to evolve.” If Blankfein doesn’t know, then no one does. Capital reserves are a big question market for bankers.
4. Businesses Continue to Deleverage
Just forget for a moment what’s going on with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and remember that Corporate America is still in tough straights. You need only look at the unemployment rate for evidence. C. Down Ritter, the CEO of Regions Financial Corp., said because of the deleveraging, “we are still seeing demand [for commercial credit products], but it is weaker than in the past.” More recently, this deleveraging took place as banks reduced their credit exposure, and that was good. But at some point banks will want to deploy their capital (regardless of the hubbub Sheila Bair caused today) — and Corporate America might balk at the offers.